Best Climate Prediction Market Sites 2026: Compare Weather Markets, Fees, and Trading Features

Quick facts about climate prediction market sites

• You can trade specific temperature readings and weather events as well.
• The market price of a weather contract reflects market sentiment.
• Contract settlement rules matter more than what your weather app reports.
• Weather forecasts often move markets before the actual weather event.

What are climate prediction markets?

Climate prediction markets are digital platforms where you can buy YES/NO shares in event contracts tied to the climate. They are similar to sports prediction markets in that they pose a question, such as, “Will the temperature in Dallas today be above 85 degrees Fahrenheit?” or “Will hurricane Beryl make landfall in Florida this month?”

To participate in a particular event contract, you buy your preferred shares at the price displayed on them (market order) or set the price you want to buy at, and the trade executes when the point is reached (limit order).

The YES share price reflects the market’s confidence that an event will occur, ie, if the share is priced at 67¢, it implies a 67% chance. Should your prediction be right, each share will pay out $1, a 33¢ windfall per share. However, the opposite is also true. If you predicted wrong, your shares pay $0, and you have to eat the loss.

Understanding how these prediction markets work improves your decision-making when trading, helping you focus on event contracts where you are more likely to be knowledgeable. Beyond just the pricing and payout mechanisms, it helps to know how to verify market-resolution criteria, so you know what needs to happen to the weather for your predictions to be right.

Popular climate prediction markets you can trade

The best prediction sites list event contracts that go well beyond just “will it rain tomorrow?” and include various prediction markets you can trade in the climate category. Here are some that stood out for us.

• Daily temperature: These markets focus on a city’s daily high/low temperature. You will find such contracts offering several temperature ranges, such as 65-70 Fahrenheit. Your prediction is right if the day’s high/low readings fall within the range you selected.
• Rain and snowfall contracts: Top prediction market sites also list rain and snowfall contracts that let you trade whether it will rain or snow and how much of it will happen in a day, week, or month.
• Hurricane landfall: If you are someone who is knowledgeable about or monitors hurricanes and storms around the globe, you will find the best prediction websites listing offering contracts that cover landfalls, storm categories, seasonal counts and more.
• Tornado event contracts: Tornado markets are also popular on platforms listing contracts tracking natural disaster counts in a year. If you are a regular weather news consumer, the insights come in handy in trading these contracts profitably.
• Climate milestone: These contracts are more long-term and are tied to major climate milestones, such as a particular year being the hottest on record or countries meeting their greenhouse gas targets by a certain year.

Top 3 climate prediction market sites to use

Since 2024, the number of prediction market platforms online has increased significantly as more people explore these sites. So, with so many options available, which is the best platform for trading climate predictions? We compared Kalshi, Polymarket, and Underdog and here’s what you get.

Here’s a closer look at what each operator has to offer.

Kalshi – make predictions on hourly temperatures, snow, rain, and more

With Kalshi, traders get access to a host of climate contracts ranging from hourly temperature markets to heatwaves, hurricanes, snow and rain, daily temperature, and more. Once you are sure you want to buy into a particular contract, Kalshi lets you place a market and limit order. With market orders, you will be charged a taker fee that can range between $0.07 and $1.75 per 100 contracts. The fee peaks with the share price closer to 50¢ and reduces the closer it draws to $0 and $1 on the other end.

As a CFTC-regulated platform, Kalshi is among the climate prediction market sites allowed to offer climate contracts across the US. Availability of the platform and weather contracts still varies by state, and we recommend checking if you live in a supported state before placing your first trade.

Polymarket – trade contracts related to precipitation, temperature, hurricane and more

Polymarket is a popular prediction markets platform with a wide catalog of weather and climate-related event contracts. The contracts we found at this platform spanned temperature, precipitation, drought, hurricane, tornado and other weather markets. We loved this since it meant more options for us when looking to trade our weather predictions. It was also reassuring to learn that this is a CFTC-regulated platform.

Polymarket charges a taker fee while market makers trade for free and get rebates. The taker rate varies by the category you are trading. For weather event contracts, the taker rate is 0.05. With that, expect trading fees for your market orders to range between $0.05 and $1.25. The fee peaks when the share price for a contract is at 50¢. From time to time, the platform waives the trading fee for some of the markets, including weather contracts.

Polymarket uses the UMA Optimist Oracle that relies on-chain data from the National Weather Service (NWS) for market resolution. With that, you can rest assured that market data is transparent and accurate.

Underdog Predict – one of the newest prediction market site for climate

Underdog Predict is among the newer climate prediction market sites offering traders a way to trade their domain expertise. The name sounds familiar if you’ve used any of the other Underdog products, like its sportsbook app. Underground Predict is built on the same infrastructure and has been growing its event contracts catalog.

At the time of writing, Underdog Predict only offers sports-related contracts with no weather or climate prediction markets available. However, we’ve been tracking the platform and its innovations since its launch, and it is possible that they will add climate and weather contracts to the variety available. Keep an eye on this page for updates on when such contracts go live on Underdog Predict.

Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. For more information visit: https://www.nadex.com/rules and https://underdogfantasy.com/rules. For Crypto.com Predictions, the term “pick” refers to a product traded on CDNA.

Pros and cons of climate prediction sites

As with any online trading platform, climate prediction market sites also have their advantages and disadvantages as follows.

Pros and Cons

• Share prices reflect real-time probability.
• The contracts are easy to understand.
• Data is verified through reputable partners.
• Offer short and long-horizon climate contracts.
• Transparent settlement criteria.

• Niche climate markets may have limited liquidity.

What to look for in climate prediction market sites

When debating which popular prediction sites for climate to choose, it is important to make certain considerations. Just as you would when choosing a politics prediction market site, here are key things to consider.

How to get started on climate prediction market sites

If you are totally green, the first logical step is to learn what event trading is from our other prediction markets articles. Once that’s covered, follow the steps below to start trading your climate predictions.

1. Choose a platform to sign up for and tap their banners on this page to get started.

2. Create your account and verify your identity for swift withdrawals.

3. Fund your account using the platform’s supported payment methods.

4. Go to the weather/climate section and select a contract, such as tomorrow’s highest temperature.

5. Buy YES/NO shares in that contract and wait for the market to resolve on a specified date.

6. Receive your payout or take a loss depending on the outcome of the event you traded.

Trade weather and climate predictions online

Climate prediction market sites have made tracking the weather more than just a step in planning your day. Savvy traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are predicting daily and hourly temperature records, whether it will rain or snow, if a hurricane will make landfall and other available contracts.

We recommend going for a platform that’s available in your location, has a wide catalog of climate contracts, charges reasonable fees, and guarantees liquidity. Our recommendations above are the best platforms to start trading weather predictions. Click on the banners on this page to get started.

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FAQs about climate prediction market sites