How Does Polymarket Work? Prediction Markets, Trading & Prices Explained 2026

If you are from the US and are wondering, how does Polymarket work? This guide is for you. The good news is that the brand is permitted in the US. You can use the mobile apps to make prediction trades.

After the initial launch in the states, the coverage for Polymarket has expanded beyond sports events. Now, you can buy and sell prediction positions for climate, crypto, political, economic and cultural outcomes. Plus, all new traders are welcomed with an exclusive prediction bonus of $25 when you deposit $10. Join us for the rundown on the prediction market platform.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a regulated prediction market platform which is permitted in the US. The platform is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). As a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, Polymarket is accessible in 36 US states, excluding Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Utah, and Washington.

Trade on various prediction future events

As we shared in our Polymarket review, you can make binary prediction trades on real-world outcomes. All trades are in Yes/No format. Successful positions settle at $1, while losing outcomes close at $0.

At the time of writing, you can make prediction trades on six major future events. This includes sports, climate, crypto, politics, culture and economic outcomes.

When Polymarket first launched in the US, there were only sports predictions. So it is nice to see more variety in the markets now.

Look into what Polymarket covers

Keep tabs on the markets at Polymarket

How to read market prices as probabilities

Reading market prices is easy once you understand how the probabilities work. We observed that Polymarket does not set its own markets or prices. Instead, all contracts and prices are based on other prediction traders’ sentiments. The higher the price, the more likely traders are to believe a specific outcome will occur.

Remember that prices are depicted as probabilities. So, here is an example of how to read market prices as probabilities:

Let’s say that the San Francisco 49ers have a price of $0.65 to win Super Bowl LXI. This means that, for that contract, there is a 65% probability that the 49ers will win the Super Bowl in 2027.

If you purchase $100 of yes contracts, you will receive 153.85 contracts ($100/0.65). If the 49ers win the Super Bowl, your prediction position settles at $1. You will receive $153.85 minus any Polymarket fees, setting your profits at $53.85. However, if the 49ers do not win the Super Bowl, your prediction contract settles at $0. Thus, you will lose your $100 investment.

How to start trading and unlock your welcome reward

We liked the simple sign up process. To start trading, you need to download the official iOS or Android app. Thereafter, create a new account and make your first deposit. FYI, we learned that the minimum age to join the brand is 18+.

If Polymarket is legal in your state, here is how to get started and buy and sell prediction positions:

1. Download – Use the banners to download the Android or iOS app from the Google Play Store or Apple App Store.

2. Register – Once the app is installed, choose whether to register with your email, Google or Apple account.

3. Login details – Enter your email address and create a password.

4. Username – A username will be automatically created for you.

5. Personal details – Enter your personal information, such as your full name, date of birth, mobile number and residential address.

6. KYC verification – Complete the KYC checks and location verification.

7. Deposit – Make your first deposit using an FIAT payment method.

8. Bonus – Once your deposit is processed, you will unlock a $25 prediction credit.

9. Trade – Browse the available prediction markets and start trading.

Pros and cons: Polymarket prediction trading

Pros and Cons

• Exclusive welcome reward
• Several types of markets
• Can close prediction positions early

• No desktop website for US users

Conclusion – Use the Polymarket US apps to trade prediction positions

With the dedicated mobile apps, you can use Polymarket in the US. We were pleased that both apps mirror each other. There are several markets, and most have high liquidity. So, it is easy to close your prediction contracts early if needed. You can also share your Polymarket referral code to your friends who also trade for a referral bonus.

Using the platform is enjoyable, and the various help guides should answer all of your questions on how to trade.

Our only gripe is that there is no desktop website for US users. So, we recommend double-checking that you have sufficient storage space on your phone before downloading the standalone apps. You can use the banners on this page to start your registration. Don’t forget to make your first deposit of at least $10 to trigger the $25 sign up reward.

How does Polymarket work FAQs